Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Opolskie?

Why

Probability rose modestly up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 2.6pp shift. Resolution depends on supreme court — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Supreme Court — https://wybory.gov.pl/prezydent2025/en/wynik/pl.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.