The market moved

+38.0ppin 24h · now 87¢

Will Raffaele Giordano win the 2026 Cava De' Tirreni mayoral election?

Politics · resolves Jun 8 · vol $916.80

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 87¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 38.0pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting.
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.