Will Raul Rex Del Rosario Mangubat win the special election to fill the Cavite 4th congressional district seat in the Philippine House of Representatives?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 1¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.9pp shift. Resolution depends on to the winner of this election — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the winner of this election — https://www.comelec.gov.ph/.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.