The market moved
-4.5ppin 24h · now 8¢
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Geopolitics · resolves Aug 1 · vol $472.98
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 8¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 4.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.