Will Reformation's market cap be between $1.4B and $1.6B at market close on IPO day?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 19¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 20.1pp shift. Resolution depends on sec filing — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: SEC filing.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.