Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 30¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 1.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375).
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.