The market moved
-2.5ppin 24h · now 27¢
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?
Geopolitics · resolves Dec 31 · vol $102.72
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 27¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://maps.app.goo.gl/Kx9MMw32sFDPUt8f9).
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.