The market moved
+2.1ppin 24h · now 100¢
Will Russia recapture Sudzha by March 31?
Geopolitics · resolves Apr 30 · vol $0.00
Why
Probability rose modestly up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 2.1pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.