The market moved
-9.5ppin 24h · now 40¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 18, 2026?
Geopolitics · resolves Aug 18 · vol $11.43
Why
Probability fell decisively down to 40¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 9.5pp shift. Resolution depends on official government information — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Official government information.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.