The market moved

-0.5ppin 24h · now 37¢

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?

Sports · resolves Jun 30 · vol $9.65

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 37¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.5pp shift. Resolution depends on supreme court — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: Supreme Court.
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.