The market moved
+15.5ppin 24h · now 66¢
Will Scott Wiener win the CA-11 House seat?
Politics · resolves Nov 3 · vol $594.99
Why
Probability rose sharply up to 66¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 15.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.fec.gov/).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.