Will Shri Thanedar win the MI-13 Democratic primary by 12–16%?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 4¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.1pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.michigan.gov/sos).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 11.1h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.