Will SpaceX fail to complete an initial public offering by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 2¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.9pp shift. Resolution depends on the calendar month (et) in 2026 in which spacex’s initial public offering (ipo) occurs — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: the calendar month (ET) in 2026 in which SpaceX’s initial public offering (IPO) occurs.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.