The market moved
-2.0ppin 24h · now 43¢
Will SpaceX have exactly 14 launches in August 2026?
Science · resolves Aug 31 · vol $85.85
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 43¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.0pp shift. Resolution depends on to the number of spacex launches between august 1, 2026, 12:00 am et and august 31, 2026, 11:59 pm et — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: to the number of SpaceX launches between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET — https://www.spacex.com/launches.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.