Will Strava’s market cap be less than $2B at market close on IPO day?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 15¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 4.5pp shift. Resolution depends on strava's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Strava's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.