The market moved
-18.5ppin 24h · now 49¢
Will summer 2026 be the UK's hottest summer on record?
Other · resolves Oct 1 · vol $20.00
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 49¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 18.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.