Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.1pp shift. Resolution depends on treasury department — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Treasury Department — https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.