Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 21¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 4.5pp shift. Resolution depends on to tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for q2 2026 — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026 — https://ir.tesla.com/press.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.