Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.4% and 2.6%?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 31¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 4.5pp shift. Resolution depends on to the 10-year japanese government bond (jgb) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the japanese minist — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Minist — https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.