Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4% in 2025?

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 11.9pp shift. Resolution depends on department of the treasury — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Department of the treasury — https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.