Will the 7-day average COVID-19 case count in the US be less than 15,000 for the day of July 22?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 0¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on the most recent 7-day moving average prior to july 22 — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: the most recent 7-Day Moving Average prior to July 22 — https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.