The market moved
+98.4ppin 24h · now 100¢
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 12 and 15 on April 19, 2026?
Geopolitics · resolves Apr 19 · vol $0.00
Why
Probability rose sharply up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 98.4pp shift. Resolution depends on imf — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: IMF — https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.