The market moved

-83.5ppin 24h · now

Will the announcers say "Shot" 10+ times during the Spain vs Austria FIFA World Cup Match?

Sports · resolves Jul 2 · vol $1.3K

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 83.5pp shift. Resolution depends on the events of the official match broadcast, beginning from the opening kickoff and ending at the final whistle, includin — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

Resolution status: proposed — verify before treating this as news.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: the events of the official match broadcast, beginning from the opening kickoff and ending at the final whistle, includin — https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf.
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
  • UMA resolution status is "proposed". Source-risk is non-trivial — a move that unwinds on settlement isn't really news.
  • Market resolves in 1.9h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.