Will the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI) win fewer than 40 seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.ecs.gov.bd/?lang=en).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.