Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeting?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.5pp shift. Resolution depends on to the change in the target for the selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the bank of brazil's march — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's March — https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.