Will the Bank of Brazil lower the Selic rate after December 2025 meeting?

Why

Probability fell decisively down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 5.5pp shift. Resolution depends on bcb.gov.br — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: bcb.gov.br — https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.