Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 2¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.7pp shift. Resolution depends on to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the october 2026 interest rate announc — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announc — https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.