Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the July interest rate announcement?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 75¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.5pp shift. Resolution depends on to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the july 2026 interest rate announceme — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the July 2026 interest rate announceme — https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates).
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.