Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the September interest rate announcement?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 83¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 13.2pp shift. Resolution depends on to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the september 2026 interest rate annou — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the September 2026 interest rate annou — https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.