Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 4¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 13.5pp shift. Resolution depends on to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the september 2026 meeting of t — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of t — https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.