Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 10-20%?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.4pp shift. Resolution depends on to the margin by which proposition 50 or any other legislatively referred statewide measure that authorizes or implement — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the margin by which Proposition 50 or any other legislatively referred statewide measure that authorizes or implement.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.