Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 28–29%?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 100¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.9pp shift. Resolution depends on to the margin by which proposition 50 is approved by a majority of voters at the california statewide special election c — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the margin by which Proposition 50 is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide special election c.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.