Will the CDU/CSU win by 4-6%?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 0¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on to the margin of victory between the cdu/csu (cdu/csu-fraktion im deutschen bundestag) compared with the second place pa — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the margin of victory between the CDU/CSU (CDU/CSU-Fraktion im Deutschen Bundestag) compared with the second place pa — https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.