Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 34¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.3pp shift. Resolution depends on to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the september 2026 meeting of the cent — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Cent — https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.