Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win fewer than 150 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?

Why

Probability rose decisively up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 5.9pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.soumu.go.jp/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.