Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April 30?

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 82.5pp shift. Resolution depends on federal reserve — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Federal Reserve — https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/11/business/federal-prosecutors-criminal-investigation-federal-reserve-chair-jerome-powell).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.