The market moved
+0.5ppin 24h · now 13¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election by 5%-10%?
Geopolitics · resolves Nov 3 · vol $7.70
Why
Probability rose slightly up to 13¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.5pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: nato.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.