Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Mexico Senate election by 21% or more?

Why

Probability fell decisively down to 48¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 9.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.