Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 8 or 9 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 12¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 3.3pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.