Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 5¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on to the popular vote margin of victory between the democratic party and the republican party in the us house of represent — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Represent — https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/).
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.