Will the DHS shutdown end between March 4-7, 2026?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 3.2pp shift. Resolution depends on department of homeland security shutdown which began on february — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.