Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 42¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.0pp shift. Resolution depends on ecb — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: ecb — https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html).
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.