The market moved
+3.0ppin 24h · now 75¢
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?
Macro · resolves Oct 29 · vol $11.41
Why
Probability rose modestly up to 75¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 3.0pp shift. Resolution depends on ecb — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: ecb — https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.