Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 3.5pp shift. Resolution depends on bureau of labor — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Bureau of Labor — https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.