Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 54¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.5pp shift. Resolution depends on federal reserve — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Federal Reserve — https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.