Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 18¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.9pp shift. Resolution depends on federal reserve — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Federal Reserve — https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.