Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

Why

Probability rose modestly up to 78¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 4.2pp shift. Resolution depends on federal reserve — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Federal Reserve — https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 3.1h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.