Will the Fed set interest rates above 2.00% (50 bps or more) after their scheduled July meeting?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on federal reserve — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

Resolution status: proposed — verify before treating this as news.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Federal Reserve — https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• UMA resolution status is "proposed". Source-risk is non-trivial — a move that unwinds on settlement isn't really news.