Will the federal government be shut down for 4–9 days in 2025?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 0¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on to how many days the u — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to how many days the U — https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.