Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?

Why

Probability rose modestly up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 2.2pp shift. Resolution depends on opm.gov — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: opm.gov — https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.